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Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Beshear outright slaughtering Williams at this point, up 27 points

PPP just released a new poll, and boy oh boy, well just look:

Well, having worked in politics I'd hate to nail the coffin shut so soon but it appears Williams doesn't have a chance at this point. Polls traditionally should be way tighter by August, but the fact that Williams has right around $100,000 on hand, no campaign manager, a split Republican base, high negatives and is facing a popular incumbent governor tells you unless Beshear is caught eating children at this point he has smooth sailing into November.

Sigh, what a boring year.  Here are the highlights:

"It doesn't look like there's going to be much to see in the Kentucky Governor's race this year. Incumbent Steve Beshear leads by 27 points right now with 55% to 28% for Republican David Williams and 10% Gatewood Galbraith. 

More than anything else this is because Williams is one of the worst candidates a party's put forth in a plausibly competitive Gubernatorial race in recent memory. Only 21% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 54% who view him negatively. Even with Republicans he's barely seen positively by a 41/29 margin and with Democrats (9/70) and independents (16/55) there are virtually no voters with a favorable view.

Even if the GOP had a really strong candidate this might be an uphill battle though. Beshear has a 57% approval rating, with only 30% of voters giving him bad marks. Out of 42 sitting Governors PPP's polled on those numbers put Beshear in a tie for the 4th most popular with Tennessee's Bill Haslam, behind only Dave Heineman of Nebraska, Mike Beebe of Arkansas, and John Hickenlooper of Colorado. Combine one of the most popular Governors in the country with one of the worst challengers imaginable and you get this blow out race.

Beshear is winning 78% of the Democratic vote. At the same time Williams gets only 59% of Republicans, with Beshear taking 19% of those votes. And Beshear is also up big with independents, getting 51% to 25% for Williams and 14% for Galbraith."

Joe presents a pretty good analysis over at Leo about the prospects of the other candidates.  More or less it's looking to be a pretty blue Bluegrass in 2011.

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